Your 17-round draft audited pick by pick, rebuilt on fifteen projection sources, and stress-tested across 100,000 simulated seasons, now with bracket-level playoff runs, a league-wide risk comparison, and your own assumptions baked into the baseline.
| Team | Record | Pts/wk | Playoffs | 1 seed | Title | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NICK | 9.3–4.7 | 185.9 | 95.9% | 49.9% | 41.3% | |
| Austin | 8.2–5.8 | 176.5 | 87.7% | 21.7% | 22.3% | |
| Dane | 7.4–6.6 | 169.8 | 74.5% | 10.7% | 12.1% | |
| Tyler | 6.6–7.4 | 164.7 | 58% | 5% | 6.8% | |
| Tommy | 6.5–7.5 | 166.0 | 56.1% | 4.2% | 6.5% | |
| Olivia | 6.2–7.8 | 162.4 | 49.2% | 3.6% | 5.3% | |
| Max | 6.4–7.6 | 162.5 | 51.3% | 3.8% | 4.4% | |
| Abdur | 5.3–8.7 | 154.3 | 27.3% | 1.1% | 1.4% |
You project first in every model, with a title probability between 39 and 42 percent depending on which one you trust. A random team in this league wins 12.5 percent of the time, so you are at a bit over three times your fair share.
The five-team playoff makes your seeding matter enormously: the top three seeds skip straight to the semifinals. You take one of those byes in 85 percent of seasons.
Your two real problems have not changed: Week 11, and the fact that a five-team bracket turns even the best roster into a two-coin-flip proposition in December.
| Team | Engine | Consensus | Risk | Team-noise | Avg title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NICK | 9.5–4.5 | 9.5–4.5 | 9.3–4.7 | 9.3–4.7 | 40.5% |
| Austin | 8.7–5.3 | 8.3–5.7 | 8.2–5.8 | 8.0–6.0 | 22.7% |
| Dane | 7.7–6.3 | 7.3–6.7 | 7.4–6.6 | 6.9–7.1 | 11.3% |
| Tyler | 6.5–7.5 | 6.7–7.3 | 6.6–7.4 | 6.9–7.1 | 6.9% |
| Tommy | 7.1–6.9 | 6.3–7.7 | 6.5–7.5 | 6.3–7.7 | 7.3% |
| Olivia | 6.2–7.8 | 6.4–7.6 | 6.2–7.8 | 7.2–6.8 | 6.6% |
| Max | 6.1–7.9 | 6.1–7.9 | 6.4–7.6 | 6.0–8.0 | 3.7% |
| Abdur | 4.3–9.7 | 5.2–8.8 | 5.3–8.7 | 5.4–8.6 | 1.0% |
You told me you are confident Jacobs and Nacua both avoid suspension and both play Week 1. The model now assumes exactly that, with only a small residual chance kept (10 percent on a Jacobs ban, near zero on Nacua). The old bear cases still exist, but as labeled scenarios instead of the default.
Everyone gets one more player, which mostly means every team covers byes a little better. The simulation already assumed teams fill holes from the wire, so the projections move less than you might think. What the extra spot really changes is strategy: you can now hold a stash (Ferguson, Brooks, or Jones) without cutting anyone useful.
You work the wire harder than anyone in this league, and Dane and Austin somewhat. The model now gives you a bonus of 0.8 points per week on any lineup hole you fill from waivers, and them 0.3. That is an assumption, not a measurement, and it is disclosed here so you know it is in the numbers. It is worth a small fraction of a win across a season, concentrated in exactly the weeks you need it: byes and injuries.
Earlier reporting made it sound like Brooks had taken Carolina's starting job. The fresher reporting says Hubbard's hamstring is healing, he has hit 20 miles per hour in rehab, and he is expected ready for Week 1. Brooks played into the second quarter of the August 15 preseason game in his return from two ACL tears. So Brooks is a share of a backfield with upside if Hubbard breaks again, not a starter. He is still worth a bench spot. He is not the best use of your first one.
You called him the complicated one, and that is right. The projections use 11 points a game. His pre-injury rate was 14.7, tied for second among all tight ends, and PFF's published ceiling for him is a top-three finish. The simulation says the difference between those two versions of Kraft is worth about four points of title probability. He is effectively a lottery ticket you already own.
Start with what the draft engine wanted. At pick 3 its board said take Puka Nacua. You took Bijan Robinson instead, because Bijan was the market's number one player and Nacua was not.
Eleven picks later, Nacua was somehow still there, and you took him at 14.
Here is why the order mattered. Nacua occasionally slides, because superflex rooms spend early picks on quarterbacks. Bijan never slides: in the simulations, if you pass on him at 3, he is gone before pick 14 every single time. So taking Bijan first and hoping on Nacua was the only path that could end with both. It did, and then Christian McCaffrey fell to 19 on top of it.
I simulated 200,000 superflex drafts to answer this properly. In a typical room, the chance that slot 3 walks away with Bijan, Nacua, and McCaffrey is 5.5 percent, about 1 in 18.
Your room was not typical. It took six quarterbacks in the first eight picks, which shoves elite skill players down the board. Rerun the simulation with a quarterback-hungry room like yours and the odds improve to 13.8 percent, about 1 in 7.
So: not a miracle, but an uncommon outcome that required three things at once. The room had to overspend on quarterbacks (it did), you had to take Bijan before Nacua (you did), and McCaffrey's injury history had to scare exactly enough people (it did). Those three players are the core of why your starting lineup projects about nine points a week ahead of Austin in second place, and sixteen ahead of third.
| Pick | Player | Pos | Market rank | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.03 | Bijan Robinson Right call | RB | 1 | +2 |
| 2.06 | Puka Nacua Perfect | WR | 5 | +9 |
| 3.03 | Christian McCaffrey Perfect | RB | 7 | +12 |
| 4.06 | Drake London Perfect | WR | 23 | +7 |
| 5.03 | Rashee Rice A wash | WR | 37 | -2 |
| 6.06 | Josh Jacobs Small miss | RB | 39 | +7 |
| 7.03 | Tetairoa McMillan Fine | WR | 46 | +5 |
| 8.06 | Jaxson Dart Excellent | QB | 36 | +26 |
| 9.03 | DeVonta Smith Biggest miss | WR | 53 | +14 |
| 10.06 | Tucker Kraft You beat the engine | TE | 78 | 0 |
| 11.03 | Bhayshul Tuten Free | RB | 75 | +8 |
| 12.06 | Christian Watson Free | WR | 81 | +13 |
| 13.03 | Kyler Murray Good | QB | 84 | +15 |
| 14.06 | Josh Downs Neutral | WR | 127 | -17 |
| 15.03 | Brandon Aubrey Wasted pick | K | 207 | -92 |
| 16.06 | Tyler Shough Best value | QB | 82 | +44 |
| 17.03 | Vikings DST Fine | DST | 218 | -87 |
At picks 78, 83, and 94 the engine begged you to take a quarterback. Its board had passers ranked first, second, and third all three times. You took Tucker Kraft, Bhayshul Tuten, and Christian Watson instead, and you were right all three times: Baker Mayfield, the quarterback it wanted at 78, lasted until pick 113. Tyler Shough lasted until your pick at 126.
The reason the engine was wrong is the reason this league is different: three teams had already filled both quarterback slots and stopped bidding. The position never dried up. You banked +26, +22, and +50 in market value on Dart, Murray, and Shough, and the entire room cost you picks 62, 99, and 126.
Nix went six picks later and scores about 18 a game, which would start in your superflex. Worth about 1.3 points a week. Your biggest miss, and it is small.
Flowers went at 52. Jacobs barely cracks your lineup; Flowers would start. Worth about 1.6 a week.
He had a 98 percent chance of lasting to your next pick. Cost in points: nearly zero. Cost in roster room: one bench body you now wish you had.
A true coin flip. Pickens plays more games; Rice scores more per game. Nothing to regret.
Bowers instead of McCaffrey at 3.03: worth 17 points across a whole season, 0.0 per week. A coin flip you won by getting the two-back build.
Kraft at 78 when the engine had him 88th: the engine was wrong. Passing on him for the best available player would have cost 8.3 points a week, because you would have owned zero tight ends.
Best Taking Josh Allen at 1.01 and then getting Jayden Daniels back at 2.08 built the league's best quarterback room in two picks. Trey McBride at 3.01 gave him a top-two tight end. Baker Mayfield at 14.01 as a third quarterback was quietly excellent: an 18-point starter as bench insurance.
Worst Omarion Hampton at 5.01 has since turned into a three-man committee, and Jordyn Tyson at 17.01 was hurt within two weeks of the draft and is out until roughly November. Neither was foreseeable malpractice. The structural mistake was spending picks 4 through 9 on solid players instead of stars while the receiver run happened around him.
Best Jahmyr Gibbs at 1.02 got the best running back in the league, and Saquon Barkley at 3.02 was fair value. Travis Kelce at 5.02 at least bought a name with a track record.
Skipping the misses here at your request.
Best A.J. Brown at 4.04 landed a top-ten receiver whose situation improved after the trade to New England. Colston Loveland at 5.04 might be the steal of the middle rounds: the third-best tight end at pick 36. Caleb Williams and Justin Herbert in the first two rounds is a top-half quarterback room.
Skipping the misses here at your request.
Best Drake Maye at 1.05, Amon-Ra St. Brown at 2.04, and CeeDee Lamb at 3.05 is arguably the best three-round start anyone had. Bucky Irving at 8.04 before news of his full recovery broke was sharp timing.
Worst The value collapsed after round four: minus 180 against market across the draft, second-worst in the league. Mahomes at 4.05 as a quarterback two, months removed from ACL surgery, is the kind of pick that works or ruins a season with nothing in between. Eli Stowers, Keon Coleman, and Isaac TeSlaa were all reaches by 20-plus picks.
Best Brock Bowers at 3.06 was the single best pick of the draft by market value at the position: the consensus number-one tight end, 22nd overall in superflex rankings, taken 22nd. Getting Brock Purdy at 7.06 and Matthew Stafford at 8.06 built a three-deep quarterback room for the price most teams paid for one. Jaxon Smith-Njigba at 1.06 was the correct pick at the slot.
Worst TreVeyon Henderson at 11.06 has since become half of a two-man committee, and Kyle Pitts at 10.03 keeps being drafted on talent he has never converted. Small stuff. His real draft error was not drafting a kicker until the final pick, then having his kicker be one the fantasy platform barely recognizes.
Best Lamar Jackson at 1.07 and Jalen Hurts at 2.02 is the best back-to-back turn anyone had. De'Von Achane at 4.02, before Miami confirmed a 40-plus touch vision for him, aged well.
Worst Three tight ends (LaPorta, Andrews, Hockenson) for one starting slot is two wasted picks, and two of the three are hurt or declining. Chuba Hubbard at 16.07 lost his job to an injury within three weeks. His draft is why he projects fifth on points but holds the second-best quarterback pair: everything after round five leaked value.
Best Burrow at 1.08 into Chase at 2.01 is the highest-ceiling turn in the league, and correlated: when Cincinnati is good, he gets paid twice. Bo Nix at 10.08 was the best quarterback value in the entire draft, a 20-point starter with a new deep-ball coordinator, taken 73rd. Harold Fannin Jr. at 9.01 looks smarter every week Cleveland features him.
Worst Ashton Jeanty at 4.08 and Jeremiyah Love at 5.08 both got hurt in August, which is bad luck, not bad drafting. RJ Harvey at 13.08 was already a role-collapse candidate on draft day. The real cost of his draft is concentration: Burrow, Chase, and Jefferson share a Week 6 bye, and he plays you that week with all three of them missing.
| Player | FantasyPros | CBS | ESPN | Sleeper | FBG | Draft Sharks | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxson Dart | 309.9 | 358.7* | 300.3 | 296.5 | 288.1 | 319 | 18.1 |
| Kyler Murray | 280.2 | 329.6* | 250.6 | 274.7 | 282.1 | 325 | 17.1 |
| Tyler Shough | 285.3 | 324.1* | 266.0 | 270.9 | 266.8 | 296 | 16.6 |
| Player | FantasyPros | CBS | ESPN | Sleeper | FBG | Draft Sharks | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 369.5 | 391.8 | 352.8 | 324.9 | 336.1 | 346 | 20.8 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 334.7 | 318.3 | 343.2 | 291.0 | 326.3 | 331 | 19.2 |
| Josh Jacobs | 248.6 | 244.5 | 259.1 | 202.6 | 229.3 | 254 | 14.5 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | 207.3 | 194.5 | 205.3 | 174.8 | 172.6 | 182 | 11.4 |
| Player | FantasyPros | CBS | ESPN | Sleeper | FBG | Draft Sharks | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puka Nacua | 339.8 | 373.6 | 356.3 | 312.5 | 312.0 | 357 | 20.2 |
| Drake London | 287.1 | 321.1 | 269.8 | 250.2 | 257.1 | 277 | 16.4 |
| Rashee Rice | 274.1 | 304.1 | 271.0 | 229.3 | 222.0 | 269 | 15.8 |
| DeVonta Smith | 236.9 | 239.9 | 239.2 | 229.2 | 236.1 | 242 | 14.2 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | 233.7 | 243.6 | 236.5 | 223.0 | 212.6 | 223 | 13.6 |
| Christian Watson | 195.2 | 197.8 | 185.1 | 207.6 | 182.6 | 226 | 11.9 |
| Josh Downs | 163.7 | 175.0 | 157.7 | 172.3 | 163.2 | 201 | 10.3 |
| Player | FantasyPros | CBS | ESPN | Sleeper | FBG | Draft Sharks | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tucker Kraft | 178.4 | 199.2 | 180.7 | 174.4 | 176.4 | 195 | 11.0 |
| Player | FantasyPros | CBS | ESPN | Sleeper | FBG | Draft Sharks | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Aubrey | 153.0 | 154.0 | 171.7 | 116.0 | 146.2 | 177 | 9.0 |
| Vikings D/ST | -- | 240.0* | 74.3 | 92.0 | 136.5 | 111 | 6.3 |
Your quarterbacks are worth far more in this format than their normal rankings suggest: Dart jumps from 94th overall in standard leagues to 22nd in superflex rankings, Murray from 112 to 37, Shough from 125 to 49. The reverse is true for tight ends, which get cheaper in superflex drafts. That combination, quarterbacks you got late plus tight ends the format discounts, is the arbitrage the trade section is built on.
High Draft Sharks QB11, 325 pts, SF pick 27
Low ESPN 250.6 pts, overall 165
New team, new offense. Draft Sharks sees a Kevin O'Connell reclamation with a 419-point ceiling; ESPN prices him as a low-end QB2. A 74-point projection gap on the same player.
High CBS 304.1 pts over a full 17 games
Low Footballguys 222.0 pts over 14.3 games
Availability, not talent. FantasyPros experts range WR6 to WR23. Footballguys is the only major source explicitly projecting under 15 games. He has not exceeded 8 games in a season since 2023.
High ESPN 259.1 pts, RB13 tier
Low Sleeper/RotoWire 202.6 pts, PFN RB19
An open criminal investigation. Rankers assuming 17 games have him RB12 to RB13; those pricing a suspension have him RB18 to RB19.
High PFN TE4, overall 51; PFF sees a path to top-three
Low Footballguys TE7; ADP as late as 100.5 on FFC
The snap restriction, not the knee. Everyone agrees the knee is ahead of schedule. The fight is over whether a reported pitch count to midseason costs him three to five weeks of TE1 usage.
High CBS 391.8 pts (23.0 per game)
Low 4for4 304.8 pts (17.9 per game)
An 87-point gap on the consensus RB2. The split is about how run-heavy Kevin Stefanski's Atlanta actually becomes and how much Brian Robinson Jr. eats.
High CBS 321.1 pts (18.9 per game)
Low Sleeper 250.2 pts (14.7 per game)
Quarterback uncertainty. Atlanta had not named a Week 1 starter as of August 25, with Tua Tagovailoa and Michael Penix Jr. splitting first-team reps.
High Draft Sharks 226 pts, WR22
Low Footballguys 182.6 pts, WR34
Whether the market has cleared its ACL discount. Draft Sharks projects 0.80 games missed. Footballguys still prices injury risk that the evidence no longer supports.
High ESPN 343.2 pts
Low Sleeper/RotoWire 291.0 pts
Age 30 after 413 touches, plus a three-week undisclosed absence in August. Draft Sharks puts his injury probability at 78 percent, among the highest in the dataset.
| Slot | Player | Pts/wk | vs wire | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Jaxson Dart | 18.1 | +1.2 | |
| RB | Bijan Robinson | 20.8 | +10.2 | |
| RB | Christian McCaffrey | 19.2 | +8.6 | |
| WR | Puka Nacua | 20.2 | +8.8 | |
| WR | Drake London | 16.4 | +5.0 | |
| TE | Tucker Kraft | 11.0 | +1.8 | |
| FLEX | Rashee Rice | 15.8 | +4.4 | |
| FLEX | Josh Jacobs | 14.5 | +3.1 | |
| FLEX | DeVonta Smith | 14.2 | +2.8 | |
| SF | Kyler Murray | 17.1 | +0.2 | |
| DST | Vikings | 6.3 | -0.3 | |
| K | Brandon Aubrey | 9.0 | +0.8 | |
| Total | 182.6 | +46.6 |
Your running backs and receivers add 43 points a week over the wire, your quarterbacks add 1.4, and that is not a flaw, it is the entire strategy: you paid premium picks only at the positions where the wire cannot save you, and it is why you project 9 points a week clear of Austin and 16 clear of Dane.
| Record | Chance | |
|---|---|---|
| 5–9 | 1.4% | |
| 6–8 | 4.2% | |
| 7–7 | 9.3% | |
| 8–6 | 16.6% | |
| 9–5 | 21.4% | |
| 10–4 | 21.3% | |
| 11–3 | 15.5% | |
| 12–2 | 7.2% | |
| 13–1 | 2.3% |
| Your seed | How often | Title odds from there | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 seed | 49% | 42% | |
| 2 seed | 23% | 39% | |
| 3 seed | 13% | 40% | |
| 4 seed | 7% | 27% | |
| 5 seed | 4% | 26% |
The opener against the most balanced roster in the league. Max has no injuries that matter and no player who can win a week alone. You are at full strength minus whatever September version of Tucker Kraft shows up. A normal week wins this comfortably.
Tyler's Lamar-and-Hurts pairing will probably outscore your quarterbacks by 8 to 10 points. Everything else on the field favors you by more. This game is a preview of the whole season's shape: his floor against your ceiling.
Olivia in September is Olivia at her most fragile: Mahomes one month off ACL rehab, Nabers possibly still out, Judkins unresolved. If you catch her before her stars stabilize, this is closer to an 75 percent game than the number shows. Catch her in December instead and it is a real fight.
First meeting with Dane. His quarterbacks give him the steadiest floor in the league, roughly 46 points a week from Allen and Daniels before anyone else scores. His quarterbacks will outscore yours; your other ten starters should outscore his by more. That trade-off is the entire matchup.
Your first bye hit: Rice and McMillan both sit (Kansas City and Carolina byes). It barely matters against the league's thinnest roster. Abdur loses Kelce and Bryce Young the same week.
Circle this one. Tommy loses Burrow, Chase, Justin Jefferson, and Jameson Williams to byes all at once, the worst single-week bye hit any team in this league takes all season. You lose Kyler Murray and a defense you can stream. This is the closest thing to a free win on your schedule, and it is why your Week 6 win probability is the highest of your year.
Austin without Trevor Lawrence (Jacksonville bye), which just means Purdy and Stafford start, and he barely feels it. That is what three real quarterbacks buys. You lose only Tuten. First of two games against your closest rival; going 1-1 or better across the pair matters for the 1 seed tiebreak.
Your hardest week outside Week 11, and it is a quarterback problem: Dart and Shough share the Week 8 bye, and McCaffrey sits too. Kyler starts, and your superflex comes off the wire. This is the week the Daniel Jones plan pays for itself: he is a free 17-point starter, Indianapolis plays this week, and you can claim him with your open roster spot. Do it before Wednesday of that week, not Saturday night.
No byes on either side. Tyler again, same shape as Week 2. By this point in the season, whether his LaPorta gamble at tight end worked will decide if this is a 67 percent game or a closer one.
Olivia loses Bucky Irving and Jaylen Waddle to the Chicago-Denver-Philadelphia-Tampa bye. You lose DeVonta Smith. You are the healthier side of this one by a lot.
The problem week, covered in its own section. Six of your players sit. Dane loses a kicker. The 33 percent already assumes your waiver fills are made; show up without a tight end and it is closer to one in six. The one mercy: lose it, and Week 12 has zero byes league-wide and you go back to full strength against the weakest team in the league.
Zero byes anywhere in the NFL this week. You at full strength against Abdur is the largest weekly mismatch the schedule produces all season, about 31 points of projection.
Tommy again, and the bye luck runs your way a second time: Jeanty sits (Las Vegas bye) while you lose only Josh Downs. If seeding is tight, this is the game most likely to decide whether Tommy makes the field at all, so expect his best effort at the trade deadline to have been aimed at this stretch.
The last regular-season game, against the team most likely to be fighting you for the 1 seed, and very possibly a preview of the final. Aubrey is on bye (Dallas, Week 14), so stream a kicker. Austin loses Harrison and his own kicker. If the season comes down to one game, it will probably be this one.
| Player | Pts/wk you lose |
|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson RB | 20.8 |
| Puka Nacua WR | 20.2 |
| Drake London WR | 16.4 |
| Josh Jacobs RB | 14.5 |
| Christian Watson WR | 11.9 |
| Tucker Kraft TE | 11.0 |
| Total | 94.8 |
You will have zero tight ends in Week 11. Wide receivers exist on every wire all season; startable tight ends do not. Jake Ferguson (Dallas, plays Week 11, about 9 points a week, rostered in under half of leagues) is the target. Claim him by Week 9 at the latest. He also doubles as insurance for Kraft's snap-count ramp in September, which makes him the rare add that helps you in two different months.
Usable in Week 11 and worth owning: Alec Pierce (Indianapolis, around 8 a game with big-play weeks), Wan'Dale Robinson (Tennessee, was the WR14 per game last year and reunited with his old coordinator), Jalen Coker (Carolina, produced at a WR16 pace late last season), and Michael Pittman Jr. (Pittsburgh). One warning from the research: Pierce, Pittman, Wan'Dale, and Tony Pollard cluster on Week 9 and Week 13 byes, so check you are not building a second pile-up two weeks later.
Every tight end worth trading for plays in Week 11: Bowers (Las Vegas, bye 13), McBride (Arizona, bye 14), Loveland (Chicago, bye 10). If you land any of them, the Week 11 tight end hole closes as a side effect, and Kraft becomes your Week 11 bench instead of your Week 11 problem. That makes a September tight end trade worth slightly more to you than its raw point value.
Be clear about what the numbers already assume: the 33 percent win odds in the schedule section are the version where you HAVE made both claims and filled every hole with a real player. Walk into Week 11 without a tight end or a third flex and two lineup slots score zero; your odds fall to roughly one in six. So the claims are not a bonus, they are the difference between a real underdog fight and a forfeit. The goal is not to win Week 11. It is to keep the damage to one loss and bank the 1 seed everywhere else.
Your Week 12 opponent is Abdur, the weakest team in the league, at zero byes. If you must burn drops or bench a banged-up player an extra week, Weeks 11 and 12 together are the place: one is probably lost even played well, the next is nearly free.
The format: five teams in. Seeds 1, 2, and 3 rest in Week 15 while the 4 and 5 seeds play. Week 16 is the semifinals: the 1 seed against the Round 1 winner, and 2 against 3. Week 17 is the final. Byes are over by then, so every roster is whole.
| Five-team field (any seed order) | Chance |
|---|---|
| Austin · Dane · NICK · Tommy · Tyler | 10% |
| Austin · Dane · Max · NICK · Tommy | 8% |
| Austin · Dane · NICK · Olivia · Tyler | 8% |
| Austin · Dane · Max · NICK · Tyler | 8% |
| Austin · Dane · NICK · Olivia · Tommy | 8% |
| Austin · Dane · Max · NICK · Olivia | 6% |
| Final | Chance | Who wins it |
|---|---|---|
| Austin v NICK | 21% | NICK 58%, Austin 42% |
| Dane v NICK | 12% | NICK 63%, Dane 37% |
| Austin v Dane | 7% | Austin 56%, Dane 44% |
| NICK v Tommy | 7% | NICK 64%, Tommy 36% |
| NICK v Tyler | 7% | NICK 68%, Tyler 32% |
| NICK v Olivia | 5% | NICK 67%, Olivia 33% |
| Semifinal opponent | Chance (of all seasons) |
|---|---|
| Dane | 17% |
| Austin | 15% |
| Tommy | 13% |
| Tyler | 13% |
| Max | 11% |
| Olivia | 11% |
| Team | Champion | Runner-up | Third | Toilet king |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NICK | 37.5% | 21.9% | 21.1% | 0.8% |
| Austin | 22.2% | 21.5% | 19.7% | 2.9% |
| Dane | 13.3% | 16.0% | 16.0% | 6.9% |
| Tommy | 7.7% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 12.6% |
| Tyler | 7.0% | 10.5% | 11.1% | 12.9% |
| Olivia | 5.7% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 16.4% |
| Max | 4.9% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 17.0% |
| Abdur | 1.6% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 30.6% |
The two bracket images you sent both use the 5 seed: the championship preview has 5 playing 4 in Week 15, and the Toilet Bowl preview also has the 5 seed in its opening round. Both cannot be right. Everything above assumes the championship version, where finishing fifth is a playoff spot. If it is actually a consolation spot, the difference between finishing 5th and 6th stops mattering and the fight for seeds 3 and 4 matters more. Worth a text to settle it.
Three numbers per team. Injury tax: how many points a week a team should expect to lose to injuries across the season, given each player's age, history, and current news. Star hit: how much the weekly lineup drops if the team's single most important player disappears. Exposure rate: injury tax divided by how good the team actually is, which tells you who is carrying the most risk relative to what they have to lose.
| Team | Injury tax (pts/wk) | Star hit | Exposure rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| NICK | 7.5 | Bijan Robinson −7.2 | 16% |
| Austin | 5.2 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba −7.8 | 14% |
| Olivia | 4.0 | Tyler Warren −9.7 | 12% |
| Tyler | 3.8 | Lamar Jackson −8.5 | 13% |
| Abdur | 3.6 | Jahmyr Gibbs −11.9 | 18% |
| Tommy | 3.5 | Ja'Marr Chase −8.8 | 12% |
| Dane | 3.3 | Nico Collins −4.9 | 11% |
| Max | 2.7 | Colston Loveland −5.3 | 11% |
Your injury tax is the highest in the league at 7.5 points a week, and that is mostly a compliment: you own the most points that can go missing. A replacement-level team has almost no injury tax because it has nothing to lose.
The fairer measure is the exposure rate, and yours is 16 percent, second-highest behind Abdur. That is the honest price of a stars-first roster: you win by more when healthy, and you lose more than anyone when the wrong player goes down.
What keeps it manageable is the shape of the risk. Your quarterback room is three players within 1.5 points of each other, so a quarterback injury costs you almost nothing. All of your real exposure is concentrated in four names: Nacua, Bijan, McCaffrey, and Rice. Two of those four (Bijan, and Nacua once the hip clears) are among the safest players in football. So your risk is high in total but narrow in source, which is exactly the kind you can watch.
Title odds fall from about 42% to the mid 30s. The only single injury in the league that changes who the favorite is.
Title odds fall about 6 points. Painful, survivable; your flex depth absorbs part of it.
His weekly lineup drops 7.8, the biggest star hit among your rivals. His tight end depth cushions it less than you would think, because Bowers is irreplaceable at his position too.
An 8.8-point weekly hit, and his backfield is already injured. This is why the sims like him less than his talent suggests.
An 11.9-point hit, the largest in the league, on the thinnest roster. His season rides on one hamstring, which is one more argument for offering him real value for Gibbs now.
If you are wrong about both calls, Jacobs banned six games and Nacua missing the first three weeks, your expected record drops from 9.3 wins to 9.1 and your 1 seed odds from 49 to 46 percent. Your title odds barely move. Even the double bad outcome is a bruise, not a break, so building around your optimistic read is not reckless. It is just efficient.
The safest player you own.
He signed the biggest running back contract in the league during camp, has no injury history since 2023, and led the NFL in scrimmage yards last year. The only open question is his new coach: Kevin Stefanski likes to run two backs, and Brian Robinson Jr. is now the second one. But the same coach also lost Tyler Allgeier, which frees up goal-line work. Those two effects roughly cancel. Expect a workload close to last year's.
Your best player, and the one your season depends on.
He led the NFL with 129 catches last year and was the number one receiver in fantasy points per game. Right now he has a strained psoas (a deep hip muscle) and has not practiced with the team since August 11. As of August 24 he was still limited to side work. You expect him to play Week 1, and the schedule helps: the Rams do not open until September 10. The projections in this report assume he plays. If he misses real time instead, your title odds drop more than for any other player, from about 42 percent to the mid 30s.
Still elite per game. The question is how many games.
He was the top-scoring running back per game last year on 413 touches, the most in football. He is now 30, and he missed about three weeks of camp with what the team would only call tightness. That is the same word San Francisco used in 2024 before a nine-week absence. There is no backup plan behind him: both 49ers handcuffs are hurt. Nothing here says he is injured now. It says that if he does get injured, there is no partial version of the loss.
Locked-in starter with a rebuilt team around him.
The Giants hired John Harbaugh, replaced about ten starters, and added four veteran receivers plus a new tight end. Dart ran for nine touchdowns as a rookie, which is where his fantasy value comes from. It is also where his risk comes from: he had multiple concussions last season, all on scrambles, and was checked for another one in the preseason opener. Expect very good production with a real chance of missing a week or two along the way.
Great player, unresolved quarterback.
Atlanta still has not picked between Tua Tagovailoa and Michael Penix Jr. They were splitting first-team practice reps as of August 24. London is paid like a top receiver, plays like one, and was the WR6 per game before his knee injury last November. He will get his targets either way. How valuable those targets are depends on who is throwing, and nobody knows yet.
No suspension in 2026. That fear is out of date.
The six-game ban you will see in old headlines was last season, and he served it. A second league investigation closed in April with no punishment. The jail time in May was a court matter about his old probation, not a league one, and he was out June 16. He is healthy, practicing fully, and is Kansas City's top receiver. What is left is a durability question: he has not played more than eight games in a season since 2023. When he plays, he scores like a top-ten receiver.
You think he plays all year. The report now assumes that too.
The facts: arrested in May, investigation still open, no charges filed, no league ruling as of August 25. The baseline penalty for this category of case is six games, and Schefter has said a suspension is still on the table. Your read is that it will not happen, so this version of the report models only a 10 percent chance of a ban. Worth knowing: even if you are wrong and he sits six games, your lineup only loses about 1.5 points a week, because Tetairoa McMillan steps into his flex spot. Your season does not ride on this.
A good young receiver in a bad offense.
He earned a quarter of Carolina's targets as a rookie, which is a real signal. The problem is everything around him: Bryce Young threw for under 200 yards twelve times last year, and the Panthers just handed play-calling to a first-timer. He is your first receiver off the bench and your most tradeable young piece, because other managers see the talent and not the situation.
The pick that got better after the draft.
A.J. Brown was traded to New England, which makes Smith the clear number one receiver in Philadelphia for the first time. In the three games he has played without Brown, he was targeted on a third of the team's throws. His only competition for targets, rookie Makai Lemon, has missed all of camp hurt. Smith also opens with the easiest three-game schedule in the league. You got him at pick 67. He is going to play like a much earlier pick.
The most interesting player on your roster.
Two things are true at once. First: before his ACL tear last November, he was scoring 14.7 points a game, tied for second among all tight ends, with the best after-catch numbers PFF has ever recorded at the position. If he plays like that again, you own a top-three tight end that you drafted 78th. PFF says that ceiling is real. Second: Green Bay plans to limit his snaps, possibly until midseason, and Kraft has said so himself. So the realistic picture is a slow September, a normal October, and an elite finish. The projections here use 11 points a game for the full season. If the restriction lifts early, the simulation says your title odds rise about four points. Do not sell him cheap, and do not panic in September.
The knee is fine. The market has not noticed.
His ACL tear was January 2025. He already came back, last October, and scored 13 points a game after returning. Green Bay just paid him roughly $111 million and let Romeo Doubs walk. He has practiced fully all camp with zero restrictions. Other managers still price him like an injury risk, which makes him worth more in a trade than he is on your bench.
A coin flip on his role, not his talent.
Jacksonville's own depth chart lists him as a co-starter with Chris Rodriguez Jr., and the head coach said in August the backfield will be a committee. The coach also praised Tuten specifically and expects a big year, so this is truly unsettled. He was drafted around the league as if he inherits the full starting job. He probably inherits 50 to 60 percent of it.
A former top-five fantasy quarterback at a backup price.
Arizona cut him, Minnesota signed him, and Kevin O'Connell named him the Week 1 starter in mid-August after J.J. McCarthy fell apart in camp. He now throws to Justin Jefferson. Before his injury-ruined 2025, he had finished as a weekly starter in fantasy six seasons in a row. His playoff schedule is the second easiest in the league, which matters because your fantasy playoffs are weeks 15 through 17.
The best value pick you made all draft.
New Orleans told everyone he was their starter back in January, before free agency even opened. Over the last seven weeks of 2025 he was the sixth-best fantasy quarterback per game, and the Saints then added Travis Etienne and a first-round receiver. The market priced him around pick 76. You got him at 126. He is also your single best trade chip, because a quarterback with a locked starting job is the one thing every superflex manager wants.
The breakout case died in camp.
The plan was: Pittman gets traded, Downs inherits the targets. Then the Colts signed Keenan Allen, who plays the same position on the field, and the plan stopped making sense. Downs is your last bench spot and your most droppable player when you need room for a Week 11 fill-in.
Every model puts you first and it is not close. You own three of the eight best skill players in the league, your quarterback room is cheap and flat, and your bench is pure trade capital. The two honest weaknesses: Week 11 takes six of your players at once, and your ceiling rides on Puka Nacua's hip more than you would like. What separates you from Austin is not talent at the top, it is that your points come from positions that are hard to replace. His quarterbacks can be approximated off the waiver wire in this league. Your receivers cannot.
Three starting quarterbacks, the consensus best tight end, a top-three receiver, and the second-best draft value in the league. He understood the format. His problem is age and fragility at the edges: Stafford is 38 with a bad back and had not practiced as of late August, Derrick Henry is 32, Olave has a shoulder problem and a contract standoff, and Henderson splits work in New England. He is the most likely team to meet you in the final. The simulation makes that matchup the single most likely championship game and gives him 42 percent of it.
Josh Allen and Jayden Daniels is the best quarterback pair anyone has, worth about eight points a week over what the wire offers, more than five times your quarterback surplus. And then the rest of the roster is fine, nothing more. McBride lost Kyler Murray and gained Jacoby Brissett, which hurts. His last pick, Jordyn Tyson, is already out two months. What keeps him dangerous is that quarterbacks are the most reliable scorers in fantasy, so his floor is high every single week. He is your Week 11 opponent, which is the worst possible timing for you.
Burrow throwing to Chase is the best single connection in the league, and Bo Nix at pick 73 was one of the best value picks anyone made. But both of his running backs are hurt right now with no timeline: Jeanty hurt his knee on August 23 and the Raiders will not say how long, and rookie Jeremiyah Love has a high ankle sprain. DK Metcalf's quarterback situation in Pittsburgh has collapsed. I rank him above Tyler on ceiling: if the backs get healthy, no one else outside Austin scares you in a single week the way a Burrow-Chase stack does.
Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts is the second-best quarterback pair in the league. After George Pickens his receivers thin out fast, he is carrying three tight ends for one slot, two of them hurt or aging, and Chuba Hubbard is week-to-week with a hamstring while Jonathon Brooks takes his practice reps. The simulation actually has him a hair ahead of Tommy on record, because quarterbacks are steady. I put him behind Tommy because his best week does not frighten anyone, and in a five-team playoff you eventually need a frightening week.
Drake Maye, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and CeeDee Lamb is a championship core. Around it: Mahomes coming back from a December ACL, Malik Nabers coming back from an ACL with no Week 1 commitment, and Quinshon Judkins missing practice with an injury nobody will describe. If the medical staff wins, she is a top-three team. If it loses, she is in the toilet bowl. Nothing about her season will be boring, and she is the opponent most likely to randomly beat you in a week where her stars all show up.
Two legitimate quarterbacks, the third-best tight end, A.J. Brown in a better situation than the one he left. It is a roster with no bad spots and no great ones, in the one league size where that is exactly backwards. In an eight-team league the waiver wire replaces depth for free, so the only thing worth owning is stars. His best player would be about the fifth-best player on your roster. The good news for him is Loveland, who might be a star by November.
Jahmyr Gibbs is real, Saquon Barkley is real, and nearly everything else on the roster is below what sits on the waiver wire. His receiver group projects below replacement level as a unit, which no other team in this league can say. He is 4 percent to make the playoffs in the harshest model and 31 percent to be crowned King of the Toilet Bowl. None of this is news to you. What matters is what it makes him: the one manager with a genuine star who has every reason to trade it, and the first call you should make.
You were right that the earlier offers were too favorable. They were priced on projections, and your league prices on names. The packages below are rebuilt around that: each target now has an opening offer, the version I think actually gets accepted, and a walk-away line. The recurring theme: Rashee Rice is your name-value currency. Other managers see a top-15 pick and an elite per-game scorer. You see a player who has not finished a season since 2023 and who sits fourth among your own receivers. That gap between his sticker price and his value to you is exactly what you spend.
Opening Tyler Shough + Tetairoa McMillan
+3.5 for you, and he says no. Worth one text to anchor the conversation.
Realistic Rashee Rice + Tyler Shough for Bowers
+1.3 for you and +1.3 for him, a genuine win for both sides, which is why it can actually happen. He gets a headline receiver he lacks and a third quarterback he can flip. You get the best tight end in football, Week 11 coverage, and Kraft as a free lottery ticket behind him.
Walk-away Do not add London, Nacua, Bijan, or McCaffrey
No tight end upgrade is worth a top-three skill player. If he insists, the answer is no and the Ferguson waiver plan covers you.
Opening Josh Jacobs + Tyler Shough + Tetairoa McMillan
+6.9 for you. He rebuilds three positions at once. He will still probably want the bigger name.
Realistic Rashee Rice + Josh Jacobs + Tyler Shough
+4.7 for you and roughly even for him, and it gives him exactly what a last-place roster needs: a headline receiver, a starting back, and a starting quarterback for three below-replacement players. If he takes it, you start Bijan, Gibbs, and McCaffrey every week and the league is effectively over.
Walk-away Drake London is the ceiling of what you include
London plus Jacobs plus Murray still profits you 3.6 a week. Anything beyond that, stop.
Opening Tyler Shough + Tetairoa McMillan
+3.9 for you; he likely passes.
Realistic Rashee Rice + Bhayshul Tuten
+1.7 for you, near even for him, and his tight end just lost Kyler Murray for Jacoby Brissett, so he may value the receiver more than the position. Solves Week 11 identically to Bowers.
Walk-away Do not include DeVonta Smith
Smith's post-trade situation is worth more than the tight end upgrade.
A tight end trade and the Kraft ceiling bet are not actually in conflict. If you land Bowers or McBride, Kraft becomes your bench tight end through his September snap ramp, and by midseason you either own the two best tight ends in your league or you flip whichever one is hotter to a desperate team in November. The only version that is a mistake is selling Kraft cheap in September while his snap count makes him look ordinary. Hold him through October minimum.
Do not trade for a quarterback, and do not send a top-four skill player away for anything. Your quarterback room is one point a week off the wire's best, and every deal above survives that fact. And the moment any of Bijan, Nacua, McCaffrey, or a healthy Rice leaves your roster, you stop being a different tier from Austin.
The 18th spot today. Week 11 coverage plus September Kraft insurance in one player. Nothing else on the wire does two jobs.
Claim him the week before your Week 8 quarterback crunch (Dart and Shough share that bye). A free 17-point starter in a superflex league is the single most valuable thing this wire holds; the only reason he is not the first claim is that your quarterback need is one specific week and Ferguson's job lasts two months. If another manager grabs him first, Sam Darnold profiles the same but is useless in Week 11 (Seattle bye).
Your instinct, and a fine third claim. A tandem back today, a possible lead back the moment Hubbard's hamstring acts up again. Plays Week 11. Just know what he is: contingency, not production.
The best pure production on the wire: WR16-level per game down the stretch of 2025, a confirmed starter, and usable in Week 11.
A stash with one job: he becomes a top-25 back the day J.K. Dobbins gets hurt, and Dobbins has never finished a season healthy. Only worth holding if a bench spot is otherwise idle.
Same logic as Coleman but for Jeanty, whose knee is already a question mark. Higher immediate odds, lower ceiling.
Now: claim Ferguson into the open spot.
Week 7: drop Josh Downs for Daniel Jones ahead of your Week 8 quarterback bye crunch.
Week 9: if Jones has held the job well, keep him through 11; otherwise swap that spot to a second Week 11 receiver (Coker or Pierce).
Week 11 morning: your lineup should already be legal without any panic moves. That is the whole point of doing this early.
Week 12 on: the spot becomes a rotating stash: Coleman, Washington, or whichever contingent back is one injury from a starting job in your playoff weeks.
Week 11 tight end plus Kraft insurance. The one move with no downside.
The one trade that is good for both sides. If it lands, Week 11 shrinks and your tight end slot becomes the best in the league.
Rice, Jacobs, and Shough for Gibbs is a fair offer that fixes three of his holes. Even a no plants the seed for his November fire sale.
The Rams' late opener buys time. He is the one player whose status changes your season.
Moves London most, Bijan a little.
Plan on 60 to 70 percent usage through September. Judge him in October, not Week 2.
Dart and Shough share the Week 8 bye. Jones is a free 17-point starter that week.
Ferguson plus one receiver on the roster, lineup legal on paper before anyone else starts shopping.
Aubrey rests on Dallas's bye in the last regular-season week, likely with the 1 seed on the line against Austin.
Eight teams starting two quarterbacks each is sixteen jobs from a pool of thirty-two NFL starters. The best unrostered quarterback in your league scores about 17 points a week, free. Your three quarterbacks combined add 1.4 points a week over that free level, and they cost you picks 62, 99, and 126. Dane's pair adds 7.8, and cost him picks 1 and 16. Sixty draft slots of extra price for six points a week is a bad exchange rate, and it is why your roster projects 16 points a week ahead of his.
You start 12 of your 18 players. None of your six bench players cracks the starting lineup. In most leagues that depth is insurance; in an eight-team league the wire is the insurance, because 120-odd NFL contributors go undrafted. So every bench player you trade costs you almost nothing, and every starter you get back is pure gain. That asymmetry is the engine behind every offer in the trade section.
The gap between the best and twelfth-best kicker is about 1.7 points a week, and nobody can predict which kicker will be which. You spent pick 115 on Aubrey when he had a 98 percent chance of lasting to 126. The cost was never points. It was one more bench body in the weeks you now need one.
Bijan Robinson RB · Puka Nacua WR · Christian McCaffrey RB · Drake London WR · Rashee Rice WR · Josh Jacobs RB · Tetairoa McMillan WR · Jaxson Dart QB · DeVonta Smith WR · Tucker Kraft TE · Bhayshul Tuten RB · Christian Watson WR · Kyler Murray QB · Josh Downs WR · Brandon Aubrey K · Tyler Shough QB · Vikings DST DST
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR · Jonathan Taylor RB · Brock Bowers TE · Trevor Lawrence QB · Derrick Henry RB · Chris Olave WR · Brock Purdy QB · Matthew Stafford QB · Terry McLaurin WR · Kyle Pitts TE · TreVeyon Henderson RB · Courtland Sutton WR · Broncos DST DST · Marvin Harrison Jr. WR · J.K. Dobbins RB · Hunter Henry TE
Josh Allen QB · Jayden Daniels QB · Trey McBride TE · Nico Collins WR · Omarion Hampton RB · Breece Hall RB · Tee Higgins WR · Garrett Wilson WR · D'Andre Swift RB · Carnell Tate WR · DJ Moore WR · Dallas Goedert TE · Eagles DST DST · Chris Godwin WR · Baker Mayfield QB · Harrison Mevis K · Jordyn Tyson WR
Joe Burrow QB · Ja'Marr Chase WR · Justin Jefferson WR · Ashton Jeanty RB · Jeremiyah Love RB · Dak Prescott QB · Jameson Williams WR · Javonte Williams RB · Harold Fannin Jr. TE · Bo Nix QB · Luther Burden III WR · DK Metcalf WR · RJ Harvey RB · Lions DST DST · Isaiah Likely TE · Jason Myers K · Jacory Croskey-Merritt RB
Lamar Jackson QB · Jalen Hurts QB · James Cook RB · De'Von Achane RB · George Pickens WR · Sam LaPorta TE · Mike Evans WR · Cam Skattebo RB · Travis Etienne Jr. RB · Rome Odunze WR · Rams DST DST · Mark Andrews TE · Ty Simpson QB · Brian Thomas Jr. WR · Chuba Hubbard RB · T.J. Hockenson TE
Drake Maye QB · Amon-Ra St. Brown WR · CeeDee Lamb WR · Patrick Mahomes QB · Chase Brown RB · Malik Nabers WR · Tyler Warren TE · Bucky Irving RB · Jaylen Waddle WR · Quinshon Judkins RB · Jaylen Warren RB · Texans DST DST · Keon Coleman WR · Eli Stowers TE · Cameron Dicker K · Jakobi Meyers WR · Isaac TeSlaa WR
Caleb Williams QB · Justin Herbert QB · Kenneth Walker III RB · A.J. Brown WR · Colston Loveland TE · Fernando Mendoza QB · Zay Flowers WR · Kyren Williams RB · Emeka Egbuka WR · Davante Adams WR · Jadarian Price RB · Dalton Kincaid TE · Ravens DST DST · Rhamondre Stevenson RB · Michael Wilson WR · Ka'imi Fairbairn K · Blake Corum RB
Jahmyr Gibbs RB · Jared Goff QB · Saquon Barkley RB · Jordan Love QB · Travis Kelce TE · Ladd McConkey WR · David Montgomery RB · Parker Washington WR · Deebo Samuel WR · George Kittle TE · Rashid Shaheed WR · Seahawks DST DST · Jake Bates K · Bryce Young QB · Brenton Strange TE · Christian Kirk WR · Stefon Diggs WR
Projections blend fifteen public sources, with scoring differences normalized. Seasons are simulated on your real 14-game schedule with real 2026 byes; each player scores from a right-skewed distribution calibrated so weekly team totals swing 25 to 30 points, matching real fantasy scoring. Lineups optimize weekly, empty slots fill at waiver level, and you get a disclosed 0.8-point bonus per streamed slot for waiver skill (Dane and Austin get 0.3). Injuries draw from published base rates (roughly 2.4 missed games per season for an early-round running back, 3 percent per week for quarterbacks) plus every named situation in the August news. Your assumptions are the default: no Jacobs suspension (10 percent residual), Nacua plays Week 1.
Projections and ranks: FantasyPros (106-expert superflex consensus), CBS Sports, ESPN, Sleeper/RotoWire, Footballguys, Draft Sharks, 4for4, PFN, NFL.com, PFF, NBC/Rotoworld, Underdog, FantasyFootballCalculator, Yahoo. Strategy research: Alex Cates positional-value study, Draft Sharks superflex mocks, CBS, FTN, FantasyPros, RotoBanter and ProFootballLogic injury data, PFF and 4for4 kicker and defense studies, SI. Byes and schedule: NFL.com, Fox Sports, Sharp Football Analysis (all three confirm the six-team Week 11). Player status: team sites, ESPN, NBC/PFT, SI, Yahoo, CBS, The Athletic, DraftSharks, PlayerProfiler and local beat coverage, all current to August 25, 2026. Anything after that date is not in here.